The Independent Market Observer

The Independent Market Observer

Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale.

What Explains Long-Term Returns?

We concluded yesterday that time, in and of itself, does not explain how investments should behave over the next several years. The question now, of course, is what does?

Posted: February 23, 2017, 8:29 pm

Another Look at the Long Run

Last week, we started thinking about what the long run really means for investors. It was a decent first cut, but the graphs I used to illustrate my point were not as useful as I had hoped. Today we’ll take a more numerical look at the argument.

Posted: February 22, 2017, 9:49 pm

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumers Lead the Way

Last week’s flurry of economic data was generally positive, either coming in surprisingly strong or much better than it looked. Both rising prices and faster consumer spending growth reflected an improving economy.

Posted: February 21, 2017, 10:57 pm

Thinking About the Long Run

As I wrote earlier this week, for investors, the difference between the short term and the long term is not as obvious as it would seem. Where does one end and the other begin?

Posted: February 17, 2017, 8:19 pm

Why Isn’t Political Turmoil Shaking the Market?

I spend most of my time thinking about economics and the economy, but over the past several years, that has increasingly included a healthy side helping of politics.

Posted: February 16, 2017, 9:24 pm

What a Difference a Year Makes

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” — George Santayana

Posted: February 15, 2017, 11:07 pm

The Stock Market and Me: It’s Complicated

In honor of Valentine’s Day, I was going to write about how much I love the stock market. The more I thought about it, though, I realized that “It’s Complicated” is a more accurate description of our relationship. I do love the market, but we have issues.

Posted: February 14, 2017, 9:43 pm

Monday Update: Plenty of Data This Week

Last week was light on economic data, and what news there was didn’t really move the needle. The recovery continues but at a slow pace, with improvements in sentiment moderating even as the fundamentals continue to get better.

Posted: February 13, 2017, 8:47 pm

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, February 10, 2017 [Video]

What's behind the ongoing rally in the stock market? I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch this afternoon, explaining why I think equities are responding to fundamentals and growing consumer confidence, not, as some would suggest, to President Trump and his policies. 

Posted: February 10, 2017, 9:36 pm

Long-Term Needs, Short-Term Focus

One of the emerging issues I see many investors grappling with is the short term/long term dichotomy.

Posted: February 10, 2017, 8:45 pm

Ready to start a conversation?

logo2 This communication strictly intended for individuals residing in the states of CO, CT, FL, MI, OH, PA, WI. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside these states due to various state regulations and registration requirements regarding investment products and services. Investments are not FDIC- or NCUA-insured, are not guaranteed by a bank/financial institution, and are subject to risks, including possible loss of the principal invested. Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®. Member FINRA, SIPC, a Registered Investment Advisor.

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